In my market research lately, I have heard countless times that “we are in uncharted waters,” and that “this time is different,” and that “we have never seen anything like this before.” Most of the talking heads today are saying that we are going to double dip into another recession before we have started climbing out of the last one. Will Rogers once said, “Don’t let yesterday take up too much of today.” I have a suspicion that yesterday, or more specifically, the last recession, is taking up too much of today’s forecasts.

I had a chance to go to a CMG Funds conference in Dallas last week, and the featured speaker was John Mauldin. Mauldin is a financial hero of mine who writes a weekly newsletter that is read by over 1.5 million people. After the conference, CMG loaded everyone onto a bus and we ate Texas-style barbeque at John Mauldin’s house. It is always really neat to meet someone that you have admired for many years and realize how nice and normal they are. He has a large family and enjoys good company like we all do. The best part of the dinner was when I found out that John works from his home office, and it looks very similar to mine (except that the rest of the house had a lot more square footage).

During the conference, one main point stuck with me: the headlines that move the market may be different and new, but the behavior that moves the market is the same. The market is still moved by fear, greed and complacency, and there is no real way to predict what emotion is moving the market and when that emotion will change. As John Maynard Keynes said, “Markets can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent.” I’ve also heard it said that understanding the mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. It is for this reason that investing is an art form and not a science…it is human behavior that makes investing so unpredictable. It is also why I love what I do… every day is different and there is always something to try to figure out.

So, the next time you hear someone say that this time is different, you can just smile and know that this time is not really all that different (at least emotionally). The maps may seem new, but they are the same ones that have always been around.

Brian Harris

Important Disclosures:

Past performance is no guarantee of future investment returns. Data contained in this newsletter is from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. For information purposes only and not intended as a recommendation. You should consult directly with us for specific advice relative to your personal situation.

Registered Representative, securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Bridge-port Financial Group is not affiliated with Cambridge and CIRA.

These are the views of Brian Harris and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.